PHRED'S PHEARLESS PHORECAST

As is traditional, we begin with a review of last year's amazingly prescient prognostication:


PHRED'S PHEARLESS PHORECAST (Last Year)

W L
PHILLIES 94 68
NY Mets 90 72
Atlanta 89 73
Washington 75 87
Florida 68 97


ACTUAL 2008 PHINISH
W L PCT
PHILLIES 92 70 .568
NY Mets 89 73 .549
Florida 84 77 .522
Atlanta 72 90 .444
Washington 9 102 .366

Phans:

World Champions. Wasn't it a great season?! Even though I missed the actual W-L numbers by 2, I did pick the phinish correctly; keeping intact a ten year record of trying very hard.

For this year's phorecast, I visited the Phils' spring training camp in Clearwater, saw some of the minor league prospects play at the Carpenter Complex, analyzed the starters at Brighthouse Networks Field, and arrived at what I believe will be an accurate phorecast, albeit one that will disappoint you.

I think the Phils, despite replacing Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez in left field, have basically stood pat. But the Mets did not. Their acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez and some putz named J.J. Putz have made them measurably more formidable. Although our new left fielder has a more consistent hitting record than the streaky Pat Burrell, he has spent his entire career in the A.L. It will take him at least twice around the league to know the pitchers, the stadiums and the different pace of games in the N.L. By then, it will be July and as in past years, we should be four or five games back of the Mets by the All-Star break. July also is when we can expect Chase Utley to start rounding into form from his off-season surgery. This spring, Chase looked very awkward in the field, throwing off-target and getting his feet in the way of his fielding. July, too, is when our 46 year old Jamie Moyer ought to begin to feel his years. I don't expect Ryan Madson to maintain his set-up form from last year because I think he is fundamentally a frail head case. And speaking of head cases, who knows which Bret Myers will take the mound this year? Cole Hammels has already been shut down once this spring and I think we can look for more of that as the season progresses. He was over pitched last year. Chan Ho Park? Ho hum.

With our three left handed hitters (Utley, Howard, and Ibanez) in the meat of the order, we'll be lucky to see a right handed pitcher in any key situations all season. Add to this the simple difficulty of repeating as winners over the long grind of the season and I think we should all remember last year's parade as fondly as we can for as long as we can. I don't think we'll see another one for a while. In fact, based on Phillies' history, we are due for our next championship season in about 2080.

So here it is, pholks:PHRED'S PHEARLESS PHORECASE 2009

W L
NY Mets 94 68
PHILLIES 89 73
Atlanta 88 74
Florida 75 87
Washington 64 98



Go Phils!!

Phred